Despite conflict in the Middle East, more than seven in ten companies still expect positive export growth in 2026, according to the Allianz Trade Global Survey. The report, based on 6,000 companies across 13 markets and fielded in February and March 2026, shows that exporters remain broadly confident even as geopolitical risk, payment delays and supply-chain disruption reshape trade strategies.
Export confidence holds
Allianz Tradesays 75% of exporters still expect positive export growth this year, even though optimism is fragile and may fade if the conflict drags on. “The impact of the Middle East conflict seems moderate, even more when compared to the 2025 tariff shock,” said Aylin Somersan Coqui, CEO of Allianz Trade.
She noted that geopolitical and political risk has become the leading global threat for 65% of companies, ahead of supply-chain complexity and concentration at 45%, which had been the top concern in 2025. Supply-related issues, including supplier bankruptcy and input shortages, have also risen sharply to 57%.
Trade finance tightens
The survey shows the conflict is already affecting payment behaviour. The share of companies paid within 30 days has fallen from 10% to 7% since the conflict began, while those waiting more than 70 days has climbed from 15% to 24%.
Looking ahead, 43% expect payment terms to worsen further, and 40% now expect higher non-payment risk. Pharmaceuticals, construction and computers/telecom are identified as the most exposed sectors, with larger firms facing longer payment cycles.
Asia Pacific gains ground
The survey points to Asia Pacific, excluding China, as a structural beneficiary of supply-chain realignment. Around 80% of firms have already adjusted trade and supply routes since “Liberation Day” to reduce tariff and geopolitical exposure.
Vietnam, India, Indonesia and Malaysia are gaining investment, while Singapore remains the logistics and financial anchor for these value chains. Vietnam stands out as especially proactive, while China’s appeal has weakened, with only 23% of firms planning to expand there, down 30 percentage points from 2025.
Firms de-risk operations
Companies are responding with practical mitigation measures. Inventory building and diversification into new markets are the most common strategies, both cited by 64% of respondents, followed by sourcing from new suppliers at 63% and rerouting through third markets at 57%.
“Since the start of the conflict in the Middle East, 50% of firms are seeking alternative shipping routes or carriers,” said Ano Kuhanathan, head of corporate research at Allianz Trade. “The second most popular strategy is working with customs brokers to expedite clearance,” he added.
New growth markets
The US has become less attractive as a growth destination, with only 13% of exporters seeing it that way. Europe and Asia are now the preferred regions for future expansion, supported by new trade agreements and market openness, says Allianz.
“93% of firms plan to expand on recently signed FTAs,” said Ana Boata, head of economic eesearch at Allianz Trade, though she warned that non-tariff barriers, especially licensing and certification, continue to limit export growth.
