In its new whitepaper, 82 Technology Trends That Will—and Will Not—Shape 2024, ABI Research analysts identify 37 trends that will not impact the overall technology market despite all the attention – at least for the next twelve months.
“When we look at the backdrop for 2024, we are still seeing many of the 2023 trends impacting fortunes,” says Stuart Carlaw, chief research officer at ABI Research. “High inflation, cost pressures, and reduced demand continue. Major markets like the US, Germany, and China face extended manufacturing recessions. Monetary policy's focus on curbing inflation hampers tech funding. Yet, there are signs of hope: inflation is dropping, central bank policies might change, and job markets recover. The global political landscape is the one outlier not on the trajectory to positive movement. That withstanding, 2024 could be a watershed year as we collectively turn a corner. It won’t be smooth, and it won’t be linear, but 2024 holds the promise of technology providing the acceleration engine to move us out of the past few years in the doldrums.”
What won’t happen in 2024?
5G will fail to attract enterprise interest in 2024 – just like in 2023. In deciding about investments in connectivity technologies, enterprises are much more interested in use cases and outcomes than in the name of the connectivity technology—especially because the implementing enterprises are not connectivity technology experts.
Mainstream foldable devices
Thinner and lighter designs, better hinges, crease-free displays, fold and flip form factors, and larger cover screens—these features are convincing consumers to switch to foldable devices.
This is not for lack of trying, as the roster of competitor foldable devices is impressive, including flip and fold variants.
Despite the efforts of GSMA's Open Gateway and CAMARA initiatives, Network APIs will not likely create significant business opportunity. And will suffer the very same fate as GSMA’s OneAPI project in 2012, which was abandoned soon after it was launched.
It is true that the telco operators desperately need enterprise revenue and use cases in 2024, but the same problems that faced network Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) a decade ago remain today: application developers are already addressing their needs through either aggregators or hyperscalers. Releasing fancy new network API initiatives will not automatically attract developer attention.
Generative AI at the edge
Enterprises will deploy generative AI in the cloud but not at the edge. The challenge with running generative AI at the enterprise edge will be in terms of selecting a good use case, deploying the correct generative AI framework/model, and balancing Return on Investment (ROI) expectations.
Don’t expect robotaxi operations in 2024. The complexity of unsupervised autonomous driving in the real world is becoming increasingly apparent, particularly in interactions with more vulnerable road users.
What you can expect is greater scrutiny following the Cruise robotaxi accident.
“ABI Research is privileged to sit in a powerful position between the tech innovator communities and those companies looking to utilize technology in their operations. Our goal is to provide the key decision tools businesses need to act with speed, appropriateness, and efficiency. 2024 will be challenging, but it also holds great promise and opportunity,” Carlaw concludes.