Asia-Pacific’s largest banks are entering a more fragmented operating reality as China’s state-backed lenders lose momentum, Japan’s globally exposed megabanks benefit from a higher-yield environment, and India’s retail-focused franchises continue to expand, according to GlobalData.
GlobalData says APAC institutions still dominate global rankings by revenue, but it highlights a widening divergence between China’s Big Four, Japan’s megabanks, and India’s fast-expanding retail players.
GlobalData’s analyst Murthy Grandhi said: “China's Big Four—ICBC, Agricultural Bank, China Construction, and Bank of China—collectively shed roughly $36 billion in revenue year-on-year. It is the arithmetic consequence of Beijing's deliberate policy to cut mortgage rates and compress net interest margins as a lifeline to a property sector still working through its most severe downturn in a generation.”
Within China, GlobalData reports that Shanghai Pudong Development Bank revenue fell 8.1% to $45.3 billion, and Industrial Bank Co revenue dropped 7.3% to $54.3 billion. It also cites China CITIC Bank, down 6.0% to $50.2 billion, attributing the declines to lenders’ exposure to commercial real estate stress and loan restructurings that depress fee income alongside interest income.
The picture in Japan is described as materially different. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group revenue rose 8.4% to $88.6 billion, GlobalData says, noting the impact of the Bank of Japan’s exit from negative-rate policy, which formally ended in March 2024.
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group is reported up 3.1% to $66.7 billion, while Mizuho edged down 2.2% to $59.5 billion, with GlobalData linking the latter partly to the group’s higher share of fee-dependent activity.
In India, GlobalData points to stronger performance. State Bank of India is reported with double-digit revenue growth of 10.1%, supported by credit demand, expanding retail lending and improving asset quality.
HDFC Bank Ltd is reported up only 1%, with GlobalData saying the figure reflects a normalisation period following its merger integration with Housing Development Finance Corp., and that investors are focused on deposit mobilisation and margin stability.
In flagging the shifting drivers across APAC, Grandhi concludes: “GlobalData anticipates the outlook for APAC banking is increasingly shaped by geopolitics, supply-chain shifts, and regulatory demands for resilience.”
