Juniper Research's latest report, eCommerce Fraud Prevention Market 2025-2030, predicts the global market for eCommerce fraud will surge from $56 billion in 2025 to $131 billion by 2030, representing a staggering 133% increase.
This alarming rise is largely attributed to the growing incidence of friendly fraud, where legitimate transactions are fraudulently disputed by consumers.
“The fastest-growing form of eCommerce fraud is not criminals breaking in; rather, it is bad actors blending in," says Shane O'Sullivan, research analyst at Juniper Research. "Many consumers file disputes without first contacting merchants, often stemming from misunderstandings of promotions and chargeback systems.”
This trend poses significant challenges for COOs and business leaders in Asia, especially as eCommerce continues to expand in the region.
For COOs, the implications are clear: friendly fraud is eroding merchant margins. The report highlights that chargebacks are leading to escalating processing fees, prompting businesses to increase their investment in fraud prevention technologies.
By 2030, it is forecasted that over 70% of global eCommerce fraud prevention spending will originate from North America, where friendly fraud has particularly high visibility. However, as eCommerce develops in Asia, companies here need to pre-emptively tackle these issues.
The research underscores the urgency for operational leaders to adapt. O'Sullivan pointed out that vendors are now moving towards AI-driven fraud prevention platforms, positioning these systems as essential infrastructure for protecting profit margins.
With regulations tightening and digital identity frameworks expanding, the competitive landscape necessitates innovation and accuracy as key differentiators.
In light of these trends, COOs in Asia must pivot from securing transactions individually to focusing on persistent identity signals.
As fraud becomes increasingly linked to specific accounts and identities, shifting to a proactive fraud prevention strategy will be essential. Implementing systems that can adapt and learn will help mitigate risks associated with the evolving fraud landscape.
