A new report from Berg Insight forecasts significant growth in the adoption of autonomous vehicle technology over the next decade. According to their research, 68.6% of cars sold globally in 2024 met the requirements for SAE Level 1 automated driving or higher. This figure is projected to reach 90.4% by 2030. The percentage of new cars sold with Level 2 automated driving systems is also expected to increase from 28.1% in 2024 to 51.2% in 2030.
The availability of vehicles with Level 3 autonomous driving capabilities is poised for substantial growth. Berg Insight estimates that 8.6% of all new cars sold in 2030, equivalent to 7.7 million vehicles, will have Level 3 capabilities. Additionally, they predict that 2.6 million passenger cars will be sold with Level 4 capabilities in 2030, representing a 2.9% adoption rate.
Martin Cederqvist, senior analyst at verg Insight, notes the critical role of the regulatory environment. "The regulatory environment is complex and rapidly evolving, with significant differences across regions as governments work to find the right balance between innovation and safety."
Historically, China and the US have adopted less stringent regulatory approaches compared to Europe, particularly in the early stages of development and testing.
Several automakers are already offering sophisticated Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS). Mercedes-Benz launched Drive Pilot in 2023, providing conditional automated driving up to 95 km/h on select US roads. BMW followed in August 2024 with its Personal Pilot L3 system, initially available on the new 7 Series in Germany. Other OEMs, including Tesla, Ford, General Motors, Audi, Toyota, Nissan, and Hyundai, offer comprehensive safety suites. Chinese OEMs are also emerging as leaders in introducing sophisticated ADAS.
Robotaxi services are also gaining traction, primarily in the US and China. Key players include Waymo, Baidu (Apollo), Pony.AI, WeRide and AutoX. [Forbes reports that China's robotaxi market is already 50% larger than the US market as of 2024].
Semiconductor solution providers such as NVIDIA, Qualcomm, and Mobileye are developing System-on-Chips (SoCs) that are crucial for automated driving.
"Suppliers of SoCs and related technologies are at the core of the progress in ADAS and autonomous driving, as these provide the high-performance computing and AI capabilities needed for autonomous cars," concludes Cederqvist.
